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A Break Below This Support Would Send Ethereum Into a Spiral

Key Takeaways

  • A technical break below an ascending channel trend line signals a potential near-term trend change.
  • On-chain data analysis shows ETH/USD continues to face downside pressure followed with a decrease in Ethereum activity.
  • $80 million of Ethereum options expire today.

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Ethereum is facing fresh sell pressure after the cryptocurrency failed to make a new monthly high earlier this week, incurring a heavy technical rejection from the $412 resistance zone. 

Failure to Launch Gives, Ethereum Bears Catch Up

ETH’s current price has so far found technical support just above the $370 support area. This support coincides with the expiration of $80 million worth of Ethereum options today. 

On-chain data analysis also shows a decreasing number of 24-hour active addresses, signaling a drop in transaction volume on Ethereum’s blockchain. On Oct. 23, when ETH/USD failed to trade above $420 resistance, it was preceded by a sharp decline in both prices and transaction volume.

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24-hour active Etheruem addresses
24-hour active addresses. Source: Santiment

Data gathered from the crypto analytics platform Santiment also highlights that from Oct. 23, Ethereum addresses holding 10,000 to 1,000,000 coins have dropped sharply.

This metric suggests that whales have been selling some of their holdings or booking profits ahead of today’s Ethereum options expiration event, as well as the upcoming U.S. election on Nov.3. 

Ethereum token distribution
Ethereum addresses with balances of 10,000-100,000 coins (red), 100,000-1,000,000 coins (green), and 1,000,000-10,000,000coins (pink). Source: Santiment

It should be noted that these addresses are diametrically opposed to addresses holding more than 1,000.000 coins, which continue to increase their ETH portfolios. This phenomenon would point to short-lived selling pressure on Ethereum.

Miners’ balances are beginning to recover, too, suggesting that miners are returning to their bullish outlook. Likewise, it appears that buyers are scaling into these price dips; hence near-term support areas should be monitored closely as they are sensitive areas for Ethereum to resume any bullish momentum.

ETH miner’s balances
ETH miner’s balances. Source: Santiment

The technicals surrounding Ethereum show that the cryptocurrency has retraced back under a rising channel, which should be considered bearish. A sustained break under this pattern may reinforce selling pressure targeting $365, $340, and possibly the $320 area.

Ethereum daily price chart
Ethereum daily price chart. Source: TradingView

However, if the move under the $380 support level proves to be a false breakout, then a bounce in prices back towards the $450 resistance level is highly probable in the short-term.

This news was brought to you by Phemex, our preferred Derivatives Partner.

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