- PredictIt, a major prediction market, crashed under heavy volume on election night.
- Biden lost his edge as platform favorite with Trump suddenly taking a strong lead.
- Biden is once again the favorite candidate and trading is live once more.
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Major crypto prediction market PredictIt crashed in the early hours of the morning on Nov. 4, with the team posting a tweet at 01:27 am UTC addressing the problem.
PredictIt staff are working diligently to repair an issue and bring service back as soon as possible. We appreciate your patience and understanding.
— PI (@PredictIt) November 4, 2020
PredicIt Crash May Have Cost Users Big
Hundreds of angry PredictIt users responded furiously in the comments thread, with many demanding refunds and threatening civil action.
This is ridiculous. Finally website loaded but my dashboard with markets/gains will NOT. Is this not illegal? You should have been prepared for this
— Nicole Gibbs Journo (@ngibbsjourno) November 4, 2020
Alright this has gone way too far. Although I can’t actually take any legal action against PI right now due to the time , I can and will be writing an email to my closest FBI & SEC state office’s and explaining to them why they need to look into this. I hope you all join me.
— Satan of Predictit (@satanofpi) November 4, 2020
The odds fluctuated wildly throughout the night, and as on other platforms, Trump suddenly took the lead as market sentiment shifted heavily in his favor.
When Crypto Briefing reported on PredictIt odds yesterday, Biden futures were worth $0.65 compared to Trump’s $0.41, with one screenshot before the crash showing Trump’s share prices rising to $0.61 vs. $0.55 for Biden. Shares can be traded as price changes or sold for a maximum of $1 for successful wagers.
At approximately 10:00 am UTC, the odds swung heavily back in Biden’s favor. PredictIt charts show major fluctuations in candidate share prices during the crash, shown below at the 11-hour mark.
Other markets also saw the odds between both candidates shift as the election results unfolded throughout the night. It seems that the crash occurred just as uncertainty around the election spiked, marking the peak time for would-be prediction traders.
Missed Opportunities for PredictIt Traders
After at least six hours of reported downtime, PredictIt is now operational again, with Biden’s odds now better than ever at $0.76 per share to Trump’s $0.31.
Political event shares can be bought and sold at any point until the event in question has concluded.
One user stated that the position they had intended to hold short-term had been wiped out during the platform’s crash, causing them to lose their funds. Many such trading opportunities were likely lost as a result of the crash.
Other markets may have benefitted from the downed service, with Polymarket taking to Twitter to boast about uninterrupted service. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin also tweeted his support for Polymarket following the PredictIt crash.
Trying out @PolymarketHQ now. It’s unique in that it lives directly on @maticnetwork, an ethereum sidechain, and its UI is optimized for attracting users from outside crypto: it has a “buy USDC with a credit card” interface, and it uses the https://t.co/oZaKeSWdlJ login service
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) November 4, 2020
PredictIt staff was unavailable for comment at the time of publication.
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